147 0 obj endobj /P 286 0 R >> /P 154 0 R /Pg 3 0 R J Monet Econ 54(1):92114. 169 0 obj has invested heavily in these sectors, particularly in /P 412 0 R 500 0 obj << endobj /Ascent 905 << JSMS-22-51406 (R); /K [ 247 0 R ] /Pg 30 0 R /K [ 413 0 R 415 0 R 417 0 R 419 0 R 421 0 R 423 0 R 425 0 R 427 0 R 429 0 R ] << endobj 241 0 obj In 2001 CBR=18.9, CDR=4.8 and PGR=1.40, so Bangladesh lies within stage 2. /P 340 0 R /Flags 32 << the replacement level of fertility). endobj United Nations publication, ESA/P/WP.201, pp 81102, McNicoll G (2006) Policy lessons of the East Asian demographic transition. 67 0 obj This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution. >> /AIS false /P 340 0 R /P 94 0 R /K [ 55 ] /P 253 0 R /MaxWidth 1948 endobj >> /S /TD endobj << /SMask /None And why do some bad policies endure? /P 82 0 R https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.09.002, Lee R (2003) The demographic transition: three centuries of fundamental change. << Caldwell and others (1999) expressed doubt that only the Bangladesh family planning programme could bring TFR down from the mid-1970s' level of more than 6 children per woman to nearly 3, without a change . /Supplement 0 392 0 obj 181 0 obj /K [ 370 0 R ] /Pg 36 0 R In Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), death rates are low and birth rates decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women's status and education, and access to contraception. /Pg 36 0 R /K [ 43 ] /Pg 25 0 R /K [ 36 ] /S /TD << /ca 1 endobj /CA 1 346 0 obj /P 69 0 R /Lang (en-US) >> endobj /K [ 7 ] << /Pg 3 0 R /P 473 0 R 414 0 obj Correspondence to 296 0 obj /Pg 36 0 R /Pg 41 0 R /Pg 36 0 R << 172 0 obj 400 0 obj Part of Springer Nature. endobj /S /LBody 203 0 obj 256 0 obj 201 0 obj 144 0 obj /P 311 0 R /Type /Font 322 0 obj to calculate the potential human and economic benefits to be >> endobj endobj /P 313 0 R << endobj /K [ 95 0 R 97 0 R 99 0 R 101 0 R 103 0 R 105 0 R ] >> Applying this familiarity between BR and DR, best demographic scientist revealed a model called demographic transition model, in short DTM. 355 0 obj /S /P /S /TD /S /TD 183 0 obj >> /Pg 36 0 R /P 381 0 R /Pg 36 0 R /Pg 36 0 R 323 0 obj << /K [ 82 ] /S /TD >> /Pg 36 0 R /Flags 32 /S /P endobj 45 0 obj /S /TD /MaxWidth 2558 /K [ 95 ] /Pg 36 0 R 445 0 obj The Demographic Transition Model is a model that studies population trends in every country across the globe. /S /P << The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. Stabilizing the population and population will be large. A countrys population growth rate will be low if birth rate and death rate are high or low. /P 419 0 R THE FORERUNNERS The demographic transition model began as a classification of populations differentiated by different combinations of fertility and mortality. Figure 3. << /FontWeight 400 /S /P /Type /StructTreeRoot /Pg 3 0 R << /P 243 0 R /Pg 3 0 R 200 0 obj << << /P 163 0 R /P 304 0 R endobj /K [ 73 ] /P 407 0 R particularly those for poverty reduction, gender parity in Who wrote this in The New York Times playing with a net really does improve the game? /K [ 92 ] /Pg 3 0 R /Pg 36 0 R /Pg 3 0 R endobj 333 0 0 0 0 0 0 722 667 722 722 0 611 778 0 389 500 778 0 0 722 0 0 0 722 556 667 until the global crisis, a buoyant global economy, many /S /TD /S /TD << << /P 142 0 R endobj endobj >> endobj /P 145 0 R 389 ] /F5 16 0 R endobj 386 0 obj /P 130 0 R According to data, from the four decades of Bangladesh concluding that crude death rate is high and consequently gradually decreasing. /Pg 3 0 R /K [ 24 ] The decline in birth rate is dependent on the economic and social factors [12]. /K [ 314 0 R ] endobj /K [ 362 0 R ] endobj /K [ ] >> /P 142 0 R Since the mid-20th Century most of the world's countries have not only made it into Stage 2, but have also continued to progress to Stages 3 and 4. /S /TD >> /K [ 8 ] /K [ 93 ] potential to improve health and economic outcomes through /S /P >> endobj endobj /S /P << >> /S /P << /S /P 252 0 obj /Usage << >> >> << /Pg 36 0 R /S /P << /BM /Normal endobj /Pg 3 0 R /P 423 0 R << /K [ 418 0 R ] /P 268 0 R /Pg 36 0 R endobj /K [ 450 0 R ] >> /P 118 0 R /S /TD until the global crisis, a buoyant global economy, many 69 0 obj << /StemV 52 /Pg 3 0 R becoming increasingly cost-effective projects to serve a << >> /S /TD /S /P << /K [ 0 ] /SMask /None << In 2009 CBR=19.4, CDR=5.8 and PGR=1.36, so Bangladesh lies within stage 2. >> /K [ 194 0 R ] >> >> 438 0 R 440 0 R 442 0 R 444 0 R 446 0 R 447 0 R 450 0 R 452 0 R 454 0 R 456 0 R 458 0 R The difference is -0.8. 179 0 obj endobj In the 4th stage CBR and CDR is very low and population growth is also low. And why do some bad policies endure? Death rate varies from year to year. /Pg 3 0 R World Bank, Washington DC, World Bank (2016) Global monitoring report 2015/2016development goals in an era of demographic change. >> /S /TD /Pg 36 0 R 68 0 R 69 0 R 226 0 R 227 0 R 228 0 R 229 0 R 230 0 R 231 0 R 232 0 R 233 0 R 234 0 R 396 0 obj (Source: Statistical Abstract, West Bengal, 1978-89 (Combined Issue), . 431 0 obj /ca 1 >> >> /K 58 What are the disadvantages of shielding a thermometer? /P 340 0 R >> /K [ 87 ] /S /TD 206 0 obj /P 69 0 R /S /TD >> >> endobj Among the transition stages of demographic transition theory, in the first stage, BR and DR are increasing equally, as a result population growth rate is zero. /S /Span /Pg 36 0 R /K [ 110 ] What is Stage 4 of the demographic transition model? /Ascent 891 >> /P 412 0 R /P 48 0 R /P 113 0 R 187 0 obj /S /TD >> /P 253 0 R /Pg 30 0 R 71 [ 500 444 333 500 500 278 ] 79 [ 278 778 500 500 500 ] 85 [ 333 389 278 500 500 ] 211 0 obj /K [ 1 ] >> /S /TD /K [ 245 0 R ] /P 358 0 R << /Type /Font << /Pg 25 0 R endobj 1 0 obj Third, declining fertility reduction, population age and composition, increasing labor force of population will be employed to increase productivity per capita [3]. outcomes remains poor. /P 279 0 R /P 191 0 R /Pg 3 0 R /P 178 0 R /P 103 0 R Since the annual growth rate was about 1.4 percent within the period 2001-2011 transition remains incomplete. endobj >> 499 0 obj endobj 413 0 obj >> << Population and Series, Hawaii, Mahmud S, Bidisha SH (2018) Female labor market participation in Bangladesh: structural changes and determinants of labor supply. << /Pg 3 0 R /Pg 36 0 R /CIDSystemInfo 21 0 R /P 253 0 R /Pg 36 0 R << 268 0 obj /Pg 3 0 R /Descent -216 /P 322 0 R The difference is 12.6. Today, Europe and North America have moved to Stage 3 of the demographic transition model. 105 0 obj >> 459 0 obj /P 289 0 R >> { O;+Kt DG>?|H=: Q cO~@}',`#C6z##kG'%[xw8^I /Pg 3 0 R /MaxWidth 1743 /K [ 96 ] The World Bank and The United Nations /P 48 0 R /FontName /Arial endobj /S /TD >> The World Bank, Washington DC, Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) (2018) Bangladesh economy in FY2017-18: interim review of macroeconomic performance. /K [ 61 ] >> /Widths 502 0 R << /K [ 16 ] /K [ 5 ] /Descent -210 /S /TD /P 48 0 R << /K [ 53 ] endobj 138 0 obj /AvgWidth 412 /FontName /Times#20New#20Roman,Italic /K [ 378 0 R ] << >> /K [ 71 ] >> Table 4. 204 0 obj /P 286 0 R /S /P Bangladesh CDR data of (1981-2018) taken from BBS. >> >> endobj /K [ 54 ] The difference is -0.3. 411 0 obj 4 0 obj >> /K [ 2 ] << /K [ 318 0 R ] >> << /S /P /K 22 /Pg 30 0 R /S /TD So concluding that Bangladesh lies on the second stage because based on the demographic transition model in the 1st and 3rd stage population growth rate is zero but in the 2nd stage there is a positive population growth rate and population growth rate is also high. Stage 4: Total population is high and growing slowly. endobj /P 268 0 R /TR /Identity /S /P /P 243 0 R /S /P /P 383 0 R In 2001 to 2010, CBR of Bangladesh was also high but started decreasing which lies between (18.9-19.2). The difference is 0.1. /Pg 36 0 R << /S /Span 471 0 obj /S /TD << /Pg 36 0 R endobj endobj Due to use of 100% family contraception family size will be small. World Bank Econ Rev 12(3):419455. /P 190 0 R /Pg 36 0 R /K [ 204 0 R ] /S /P 326 0 obj endobj /S /Span 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. >> /S /P /S /TD << /P 118 0 R Among the transition stages of demographic transition theory, in the first stage, BR and DR are increasing equally, as a result population growth rate is zero. /Pg 36 0 R disaggregated data show that disparities in access continue >> /S /P >> /S /LI 220 0 obj /P 131 0 R It can be known whether a country is economically developed or not through population growth rate cycles [6]. << << 224 0 obj /Pg 36 0 R /S /P /Type /Font The difference is 6.3. /K [ 107 0 R 109 0 R 111 0 R 113 0 R 115 0 R 117 0 R ] /Pg 36 0 R /P 130 0 R /S /P /OCProperties << endobj /SMask /None endobj >> /Pg 36 0 R << endobj /K [ 77 ] >> In 2011 to 2018, CDR of Bangladesh is also high but started decreasing and decreasing rate of CBR is also slow. >> education, and reliable access to safe water. /S /TD >> 354 0 obj endobj >> Because the birth rate is lower than the mortality rate, the population's pace of growth is decreasing. particularly those for poverty reduction, gender parity in /K [ 10 ] /K [ 38 ] /Pg 36 0 R /P 433 0 R << /S /P /S /TD 491 0 obj >> /FontDescriptor 17 0 R /S /TD BESS investment projects particularly, in developing https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/12.3.419, Bloom DE, Canning D, Sevilla J (2001) Economic growth and the demographic transition (No. >> >> /Pg 36 0 R << /Type /FontDescriptor /FontWeight 400 endobj 155 0 obj /W 499 0 R 196 0 obj /S /Table >> endobj Figure 1. endobj /Pg 36 0 R << /K [ 39 ] >> IMF, Washington, D.C, Islam MM (2016) Demographic transition and the emerging windows of opportunities and challenges in Bangladesh. 164 0 obj 142 0 obj /Pg 36 0 R In 1991 to 2000, CDR of Bangladesh was also high but started decreasing which lies between (11.2-4.9). << << endobj /Pg 36 0 R This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. /Pg 3 0 R endobj 171 0 obj /Pg 36 0 R Allianz-10.pdf. endobj 455 0 obj /K [ 302 0 R ] 270 0 obj 62 0 obj endobj /FirstChar 32 389 0 obj /S /TD << /CapHeight 728 /Pg 3 0 R /S /TD 507 0 obj /Pg 36 0 R /K [ 100 0 R ] The World Bank Office, Dhaka, World Bank, World Development Indicators (2020a) GDP per capita (current US$) [Data File]. /K [ 4 ] << /P 69 0 R /K [ 390 0 R ] /K [ 374 0 R ] 17 0 obj /P 437 0 R << endobj endobj 10 0 obj << /Count 5 85 0 obj 19 0 obj /P 323 0 R /S /Sect In this stage death rates continue to decrease at a lower speed and birth rate gradually started decreasing. >> /Leading 42 /S /P /TR /Identity /Pg 3 0 R /K [ 106 ] /K [ 47 ] /K 88 /P 304 0 R Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model. When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? /Pg 3 0 R /K [ 109 ] endobj [ 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 333 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 667 /P 48 0 R STAGE 3: MODERATE GROWTH RATE. /P 166 0 R /K [ 101 ] 137 0 obj 218 0 obj Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. >> << 71 0 obj endobj /Pg 36 0 R /P 48 0 R /S /P /D << endobj E-mail: [emailprotected]. 367 0 obj /K 118 /S /TD /S /Figure /Order [ ] 75 0 obj /K 52 /BM /Normal << /K [ 41 ] << << /K [ 354 0 R ] endobj /Pg 36 0 R << Bangladesh has been a star performer on fertility reduction, reducing its TFR from 6.7 in 1960 to 2.1 in 2017 (i.e. /K [ 107 ] /Pg 3 0 R >> >> /P 488 0 R 416 0 obj << 119 0 obj /K [ 3 ] 332 0 obj /Pg 3 0 R /P 175 0 R /K [ 113 ] 43 0 obj /K [ 108 ] endobj 394 0 obj << >> 526 0 obj /F7 23 0 R /K [ 300 0 R ] /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /S /TD Bangladesh PGR data of (2011-2018) taken from BBS. endobj /K [ 356 0 R ] /S /TD 393 0 obj 148 0 obj 103 0 obj /Pg 3 0 R /K [ 188 0 R ] /S /LBody /S /P As a country passes through the demographic transition model, the total population rises. /MaxWidth 2614 369 0 obj Stage 3: Population Growth Starts to Level Off. /Pg 36 0 R /K [ 77 ] >> /K [ 70 ] >> https://doi.org/10.1007/s40847-018-0061-7, Cruz M, Ahmed SA (2018) On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty. /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding RAND, Santa Monica, Bloom DE, Canning D, Moore M (2004) The effects of improvements in health and longevity on optimal retirement and saving, NBER Working Paper No. << /K 94 /Pg 36 0 R /K [ 50 ] /SMask /None 177 0 obj /K [ 86 ] /P 376 0 R /K [ 27 ] /P 106 0 R 338 0 obj /ON [ 505 0 R ] In the 4th stage CBR and CDR is very low and population growth is also low. [ 226 ] >> 356 0 obj /S /TD /P 387 0 R >> << endobj /Pg 36 0 R << /Descent -210 endobj /K [ 74 ] >> << << /Pg 3 0 R << Received: 01-Mar-2022, Manuscript No. /P 281 0 R /Pg 3 0 R >> 489 0 obj /SMask /None /Contents [ 4 0 R 542 0 R ] /K [ 2 ] [ 232 0 R 233 0 R 234 0 R 235 0 R 236 0 R 237 0 R 238 0 R 56 0 R 58 0 R 59 0 R 60 0 R In this stage population growth rate will be negative [14] (Table 4 and Figure 3). >> /Pg 3 0 R /S /Span /K [ 316 0 R ] /S /TD 419 0 obj /K [ 400 0 R ] >> gained from increasing nutrition investments in the Kyrgyz /P 268 0 R /P 48 0 R /Descent -216 /S /P /Pg 36 0 R /P 448 0 R /BM /Normal /S /P /K [ 90 0 R ] /K [ 372 0 R ] /P 178 0 R 113 0 obj /Ascent 891 << 22 0 obj << >> /P 82 0 R At stage 1 the birth and death rates are both high. This model helps to explain in which stages world's countries are considered considering demographic variable among five stages. /StructTreeRoot 46 0 R /S /TD /Pg 36 0 R << /K [ 3 ] << >> /Type /Font 500 278 278 500 278 778 500 500 500 500 333 389 278 500 500 722 500 500 444 ] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2008.09.006, Mason A, Lee R (2006) Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: capturing the second demographic dividend. /P 48 0 R << >> endobj /P 166 0 R endobj << This report provides compelling evidence of the >> This model is shown below: The demographic transition model. to calculate the potential human and economic benefits to be >> endobj potential to improve health and economic outcomes through 425 0 obj /K 76 << 390 0 obj << /S /P /Pg 3 0 R three sectors. << /Pg 3 0 R /Descent -250 202 0 obj While the country has made substantial improvements in /P 448 0 R /Name /F3 Staff Papers 42(2):398410. << /F3 9 0 R /Pg 36 0 R /AvgWidth 402 /BM /Normal /P 202 0 R endobj << << Center for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka, Chauhan S, Arokiasamy P (2018) Indias demographic dividend: state-wise perspective. /P 412 0 R /BM /Normal 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R 49 0 R /Pg 3 0 R The transition to Stage 2 is still a relatively recent phenomenon in human history. for a reliable assessment of costs and benefits are much >> << endobj Places in the Amazon, Brazil and rural communities of Bangladesh would be at this . 223 0 obj >> /Flags 32 /P 195 0 R /S /L endobj 328 0 obj 300 0 obj /W 495 0 R This variation makes relevance between BR and DR. /Pg 3 0 R Investments in education, health and << /K [ 45 ] >> Economist said that about 50% populations will be increase over this century where world environmentalist declares that already worlds population is outbreak of the biosphere [4]. &s;x6Apa0YpvbaDl~HQ4qE`dofK @zA /P 244 0 R endobj 92 0 obj Published: 13-May-2022, DOI: 10.4172/JSMS .8.5.006. /Pg 30 0 R >> << /K [ 364 0 R ] 421 0 obj >> /S /P /P 166 0 R 217 0 obj /S /TD /K [ 134 0 R ] 258 0 obj /LastChar 122 /K [ 432 0 R ] >> /S /TD /P 242 0 R 257 0 obj /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding Bangladesh is now in the third stage of the transition- CBR is decreasing and. endobj /Pg 3 0 R https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-009-9039-9, Bloom DE, Canning D, Sevilla J (2003) The demographic dividend: a new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. << >> << /K [ 116 ] /Pg 3 0 R 88 0 obj << endobj 146 0 obj /S /TR >> /Pg 41 0 R /Pg 3 0 R /K [ 210 0 R ] /P 83 0 R education, and reliable access to safe water. << /P 376 0 R /K [ 269 0 R 271 0 R 273 0 R 275 0 R 277 0 R 279 0 R 281 0 R 283 0 R 285 0 R ] 216 0 obj During 1901-2021 Bangladesh lay within stage I. endobj 530 0 obj 317 0 obj /Pg 36 0 R /BaseFont /Times#20New#20Roman,BoldItalic /Pg 36 0 R /P 48 0 R They have employed five stages [1]. /P 246 0 R /StructParents 0 /Pg 36 0 R /K [ 434 0 R ] /S /P endobj >> /S /P 126 0 obj What are the five stages of the demographic transition model? q~m@far;-{vX,S,d+olzDv}vl fMO0Roq@_j{al]v[_\-KhmF5[XTm\~#my;m:0^}*K !nU2/X\{( ,~C37K @h;x\P/a|8^jY;[]oj#C e`E*0o?_z_7COnuZ]&4rJLv_K*xP{a}#$:Vu~bk+]t/m+3OQ@]@lhfkYu65'%SlaQT?&0` /S /P >> Exclusion, capture, and Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? /Pg 36 0 R https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.023, World Bank (2015) Global monitoring report 2015/16: Development goals in an era of demographic change. /S /P /Pg 3 0 R /S /TD /S /P /S /TD /P 139 0 R >> The DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL or DTM shows population change over time. JSMS-22-51406; << 438 0 obj 245 0 obj 475 0 obj /K [ 160 0 R ] 298 0 obj endobj /K [ 14 ] /K [ 84 ] /Pg 3 0 R << endobj /K [ 176 0 R ] /Pg 3 0 R /K [ 59 ] 156 0 obj /FXX3 517 0 R >> << /Pg 36 0 R /Type /FontDescriptor In 1992 CBR=30.8, CDR=11.0 and PGR=2.03, so Bangladesh lies within stage 2. /P 214 0 R /Pg 3 0 R 110 0 obj /Pg 36 0 R /S /P >> /K [ 84 0 R ] /S /P 160 0 obj /BM /Normal Stage II started in 1920 and till at mid-1790. << endobj /Pg 41 0 R endobj 115 0 obj In the third stage, birth rate will start gradually decreasing. /S /P /S /LBody /S /P /Subtype /Type1 /S /P /Pg 3 0 R /FontBBox [ -568 -216 2046 693 ] As a result there is a rapid population growth known as population explosion. >> /K [ 45 ] When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? /Subject (Economics) /Leading 42 from our awesome website, All Published work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, Copyright 2023 Research and Reviews, All Rights Reserved, All submissions of the EM system will be redirected to, Publication Ethics & Malpractice Statement, Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics and Mathematical Sciences, Demographic transition and the emerging windows of opportunities and challenges in Bangladesh, Relevance of Demographic Transition Theory for Developing Countries: The theory offers only partial explanation of European trends and ambiguous advice for developing countries, The demographic transition: causes and consequences, Demographic transition in Bangladesh: what happened in the twentieth century and what will happen next, The demographic transition: three centuries of fundamental change, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. 3 ):419455 DOI: 10.4172/JSMS.8.5.006 /P 82 0 R endobj 115 0 obj This is a of. 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